NOAA issues Winter Weather Outlook

The much anticipated NOAA Winter Weather Outlook was released today.  Here's a look at their forecast for temperatures and precipitation for the time period of December through February.

Some things to keep in mind with this forecast.  NOAA admits that this was a difficult forecast largely in part because El Nino has not progressed as anticipated.  Something also to keep in mind as you look at the maps is that this forecast does not provide forecasts for where and when snowstorms will occur, nor does it predict total seasonal snowfall accumulation.

As you look at the map, you notice that central Illinois is not included in any of the mentioned areas, and as such is classified in the "Equal Chances" category.   This does not mean that NOAA is predicting an average winter for us, rather it mentions that our area has equal chances of being warmer/drier than average, cooler/wetter than average, or average in both precipitation and temperature.

Something to remember:  We are coming off two extremes over the last to winters here in central Illinois.  Two years ago was the snowiest on record for central Illinois, topping out a 52.5 inches.  Last year was the 6th least snowiest on record, with only 11.5 inches.  We should average around 24.6" of snow each winter.    Keep in mind that the area still is dealing with drought conditions, which do not stop just because the growing season is nearing an end.  Droughts are cumulative, and can cause a huge problem if we continue on the trend from last winter for next years growing season.

Here's a link to the full NOAA Winter Weather Outlook